Science can help answer countless questions that arise during the analysis about which media is actually responsible for conversion, or rather, which are the touchpoints that lead your lead to actual conversion .
This is precisely the role of attribution models, to discover what the customer journey was like up until the last point of contact. However, the most traditional ones use the market average to evaluate each channel and do not respond considering the specificities of the business.
And for media spending to become an investment and not just an expense, it is necessary to understand what is actually happening with the journey. “We cannot just believe what Google Analytics shows, for example, but we must understand the real reality,” adds Marcel Ghiraldini, Chief Growth Officer at MATH.
But how to do this? Humanity's greatest scientists can help.
Newton: Apple's last click
One day Newton was sitting under an apple tree in a garden and saw an apple falling from it. The thought came to his mind that there must be some reason why the apple fell to the ground and not upward. This is how he came to the conclusion that there is a force exerted by the Earth that pulls (attracts) all objects downward towards it. This force he called gravity.
Measuring conversions using last-click or assisted conversion attribution models is as tangible as watching an apple fall from a tree. This means that the macro conditions for the final event to happen are ignored.
Just like Newton , those who only analyze the last point of contact ignore the macro and only see the immediate. To give an example, what were the external factors that caused Newton's apple to fall to the ground? Was it wind, some vibration or simply because it was ripe? What happened before?
Those who only look at the last click ignore which channels were decisive for the first click. At what moments in the journey did the brand impact this customer ? Do you know?
Schrödinger: Mapping the Customer Journey
One of the most famous paradoxes in quantum physics is that of Schröringer 's Cat , in which a cat is placed inside a sealed box with a radioactive source and a poison, which would be activated if an atom of the radioactive substance disintegrated; in this way, until the box is opened (observation point) the cat will be both alive and dead.
However, when the cat opens the box, its quantum state changes abruptly and randomly, forcing it to be either alive or dead. This movement is called a quantum jump .
Unlike Newton, Schröringer preferred to observe the micro, but what he realized was that it is not possible to make a measurement without interfering in the results of that measurement itself. In other words, when we closely observe each touch point, we can then create strategies for a positive or negative experience – from the customer's point of view – and then interfere in the final result.
Measuring satisfaction and demonstrating active listening generates moments of truth, so the act of measuring alters the state of the observed object, both the subatomic elements and the consumer.
Active listening is a complete view of the customer journey with us, used to identify opportunities and pain points in order to improve the customer experience. Do you listen to yours?
Einstein: media investment can be relative
If there is anyone who would understand that increasing media investments to attract more malaysia phone number example leads can be relative, that person would certainly be Einstein .
Einstein continued to look at nature like Newton, however, this time on a much larger scale, he realized that bodies attract each other in the cosmos, but not with the “same gravity” theorized by Newton.
General relativity has made it possible to explain everything from the birth of the Universe to the orbit of planets and black holes.
But now taking this theory to marketing, after all, who invests more in media attracts more potential customers? It depends, or rather, it is relative.
It may seem obvious that investing more money will generate more conversions, but if this budget is allocated to the wrong media, the result will be a flood of leads with a low ICP (Ideal Customer Profile). Just like the mass in space-time, the greater it is, the more it attracts, so is the advertising budget, but in both cases we run the risk of creating a black hole. In short: money thrown away .
Simple, discover the weight of each marketing action in your customer's conversion.
As science shows us, it is possible to draw different conclusions about the same fact depending on how the analysis is done – from micro to macro. But combining data from these various observations is the path that leads to a much richer view of the observed fact.
Therefore, the first step is to find out what your business's Economic KPI is, the one that actually translates into a sales indicator.
To do this, take your clear reality and look from there at the purchasing journey, backwards or forwards, depending on your business model. Only then will it be possible to analyze the micro and macro and understand the impact of the whole on your sales.
Is it a magic number?
Of course not. No one makes decisions based solely on numbers.
The purchasing journey is complex, as it can be made up of several organic and paid channels with information spread across many platforms. In the end, reconciling all this data is a thankless challenge.
The attribution models available on the market do not consider the complexity of these journeys, whether by looking only at the last click before the purchase button or by a myopic view that multiplies the clicks on the purchase button, artificially inflating the results.
And if your Economic KPI is not in the last click, as most are not - even in e-commerce, since the credit card may be declined or even the customer may return the merchandise -, perhaps the purchase button is not the place where you will measure it unequivocally.
Of course, it is possible to use what is ready on the platforms, but it is important to understand that what is sold for Facebook is different from what is sold for Google, that is, looking equally at everyone, the results can be inflated.
And how to solve it?
Defining economic KPIs by product type, customer or SKU for each point in the conversion funnel, from bottom to top. (ROAS, CAC, LTV);
Mapping the customer's purchase history, going beyond clicking the buy button, focusing on real sales, returns, payments and Checkout.
Only then will it be possible to answer questions such as:
What is the relative contribution of each medium to the purchasing journey?
What is the incremental impact of each medium on overall sales?
Therefore, only a personalized attribution model can identify all touch points of the customer journey from the first contact to the purchase decision, as it connects information from the most diverse channels throughout the entire journey, until the final conversion (and real! Not the last click!).
With this in mind, at MATH MKT, we designed a customized attribution model – Media Mix Modeling - that concentrates data from the most diverse channels and uses statistical models to measure the effect of the media mix on lead generation.
This ensures media optimization for each channel, according to its real impact on the purchasing journey. In addition, it provides a much clearer view of CAC, ROAS and ROI.
Media Mix Modeling takes the reality of your company’s digital marketing investments to another level. “You go from spending more to selling more, to using what you have to sell better,” concludes Ghiraldini.